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Section B > Module 2 > Risk Assessment

2.2 Constructing Disaster Scenarios and Evaluating Risk Levels

Evaluation of risks.

Summary

Evaluation of disaster risks based on the following criteria:

  • The probability of a particular disaster scenario occurring, which range between high, medium and low.
  • The severity of the consequences of the disaster scenario, on the site, its individual components, visitors and local stakeholders and other potentially irreversible impacts such as the loss of intangible heritage values, economic impact and other concerns. Consequences can also be rated from catastrophic or severe, mild, gradual or no consequence.
  • The level of risk to the site for a particular scenario is assessed vis-à-vis the probability, severity of consequence on people, lives and livelihoods, and potential loss of values.
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Teaching Strategies

This stage of the module is best disseminated through the primary case study and the participant case study project, carrying forward the learning of the previous sections. An introductory lecture and secondary case examples may be used for this section in conjunction with the other sections or as a single overview lecture which also introduces the methodology of the next workshop.

Primary Case Study

The primary case study format continues from the previous two sections. The exercise through which participants had familiarised themselves with the site and analysed the risks applicable, now enter into the next stage of the exercise. The pedagogical strategy of ‘Learning by Doing’ is designed to make participants conversant with practical techniques and approaches, which they are likely to retain in their memories for a long period of time.

The instructor will also use this opportunity to emphasise the collection of appropriate data/information that would help in analysing probability and impact. For this he/she may revisit the data collected by participants for primary case study site during previous workshops conducted for risk identification, analysis and scenario development.

Sample Workshop


Workshop: Evaluating Risk Levels, Workshop 4, International Training Course 2011
Instructor: Rohit Jigyasu
Duration: 120 minutes
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Summary

Evaluation of disaster risks based on the following criteria:

Prioritising risk mitigation options based on essential considerations:

Additionally, the following issues could be discussed:

Teaching Strategies

This stage of the module is best disseminated through the primary case study and the participant case study project, carrying forward the learning of the previous sections. An introductory lecture and secondary case examples may be used for this section in conjunction with the other sections or as a single overview lecture which also introduces the methodology of the next workshop.

Primary Case Study

The primary case study format continues from the previous two sections. The exercise through which participants had familiarised themselves with the site and analysed the risks applicable, now enter into the next stage of the exercise. The pedagogical strategy of ‘Learning by Doing’ is designed to make participants conversant with practical techniques and approaches, which they are likely to retain in their memories for a long period of time.

The instructor will also use this opportunity to emphasise the collection of appropriate data/information that would help in analysing probability and impact. For this he/she may revisit the data collected by participants for primary case study site during previous workshops conducted for risk identification, analysis and scenario development.

Sample Workshop

Workshop: Evaluating Risk Levels, Workshop 4, International Training Course 2011
Instructor: Rohit Jigyasu | Duration: 120 minutes

The primary case study was concluded in a workshop where participants used their assessment of the disaster scenarios to assess severity of risks and discuss with the instructors, the severity of impact as well as what possible mitigation measures could be undertaken.

At this stage, detailed worksheets were distributed amongst participants who listed various considerations. Evaluation of risks as low, medium and high is done by participants. Each participant was asked to rank probability, consequence on life and consequence on heritage values at 1, 2 or 3 (from low to high). They were given scorecards that were then used by the lecturer to aggregate scores from low, medium to high risk levels. This workshop could be linked to the risk identification and analysis stage. The instructor can emphasize the collection of the right kind of information/data from primary and secondary sources.

Sample formats used by participants

At the end of the workshop, the instructor facilitated an evaluation of the three scenarios presented by the groups through a scoring game. Each participant was asked to score probability and consequence and a commonly agreed on score was arrived at through discussion.